Here are excerpts from Harvey’s article today in the Vancouver Sun:
“…there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the supply of oil. For a start, output from some of the world’s conventional fields is indeed declining…”
“…in-place resources of bitumen, oilsands and oil shale could yield roughly 10 trillion barrels or equivalent, most of it in friendly hands. However, it will be expensive to extract and process.”
“The second worrying trend is the rapid growth of oil-dependent China, India and other emerging economies, where energy demand is unlikely to decline appreciably…”
“One can’t rule out international belligerence as a culprit in the world’s oil woes. Many promising oil deposits are in hostile jurisdictions that limit, or even bar, foreign investment and activity, with the result that oil recovery, when there is any, is inefficient, intermittent and insecure. Frequent regional conflicts play havoc with oil exploration, extraction and delivery.”
“Another problem is that no one really knows the size of reserves in oil-rich states such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia. For instance, only Saudi officials know how much oil that country has and the estimates they make public may be fictions designed to yield political gain.”
“To complicate matters further, many countries have declared areas off-limits for oil and gas exploration and development…”
“The world economy is dependent on oil and all of us are vulnerable to disruptions in its production and delivery.”
“The price of oil is ruled by the laws of supply and demand, which are subject to geopolitical influences. Supply can be limited by cartels assigning production quotas to its members, or by boycotts or by wars. Demand can be stimulated by raising personal disposable income and depressed by a recession, as we see in the U.S. Indeed, the price of oil began to weaken as the global economy wound down and demand lessened. That’s the way markets are supposed to work. Nevertheless, it makes sense to diversify, to prepare and have on hand a full basket of energy options.”
“…there’s much to be gained by having a few more arrows in the quiver.”
The members of Vancouver Peak Oil - and all the scientists, geologists, oilmen, economists, investment bankers, urban planners, government agencies and others involved in preparing for global oil depletion - agree with all of the above, and welcome Harvey to the fold!