by Rex Weyler
From his “Deep Green” column
Original article

As the era of cheap liquid fuels draws to an end, everything about modern consumer society will change. Likewise, developing societies pursuing the benefits of globalization will struggle to grow economies in an era of scarce liquid fuels. The most localized, self-reliant communities will experience the least disruption.

Oil is a fixed asset of the planet, representing stored sunlight accumulated over a billion years as early marine algae, and other marine organisms (not dinosaurs) captured solar energy, formed carbon bonds, gathered nutrients, died, sank to the ocean floors, and lay buried under eons of sediment. Like any fixed non-renewable resource, oil is limited, and its consumption will rise, peak, and decline.

World oil production increased for 150 years until the spring of 2005, when world crude oil production reached about 74.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), and total liquid fuels, including tar sands, liquefied gas, and biofuels reached about 85 mb/d. In spite of the efforts since, and tales of “trillions of barrels” of oil in undiscovered fields, liquid fuel production has remained at about 85.5 mb/d for three years, the longest sustained plateau in modern petroleum history. Discoveries of new fields peaked 40 years ago. Read the complete Post.

The Dutch are usually known for a balanced and well thought out opinion and the latest public release by CIEP merits that opinion. The summary posting on The Oil Drum (TOD) is at:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4358#more

And, this is where I saw good news amongst the numbers that echo what most “Peakers” have known for some time. If we can hold to a plateau in production over the next 5 to 10 years, we might have a good chance for a soft landing; and, prices based on local value is a major improvement over the preceding consume-at-all-costs commodity market for oil. That is, the price of oil will more directly reflect its true value and worth, and that is a good thing.

The best outcome we hoped for was to significantly, or stop, blowing the precious endowment out our tailpipe and use the resource for much higher value items such as medical supplies, key materials and even clothing products. (Full disclosure, I love the new materials used in golf shirts, and polypropylene ski clothing). Somewhere between the lines of this monumental report I saw this awareness peaking out. (oops, watch the puns!).

This is not to say that the immediate changes, phases, and convulsions won’t be painless. We are in for some challenging times none the less. However, perhaps the CIEP report will catch the attention at the appropriate levels as the Hirsch Report, the GAO report, the Pentagon Report, the multitude of YouTube videos should have, the constant warnings and recriminations of Simons, Kuntsler, Heinberg and Campbell should have; and most importantly, will catch the attention of everyday middle management and family dinner table discussions.

We may now have the paradigm set in place as described by Fatih Birol to, “leave oil before it leaves us.” That is the good news ensconced in verbiage and sometimes overwhelming content of a report of this scope. As an engineer working in the energy business, I see a faint glimmer of hope that a greatly reduced energy society is more likely than the Olduvai Gorge – or massive die off.

We still have a long way to go campers, but its a start.  Matter of fact, to earn a merit badge one must read the referenced link!  There will be a test…

Our very own Jon Cooksey has done an incredible job putting together a peak-oil road map not unlike the ‘Candyland’ board game. He is currently shooting the much anticipated documentary How to boil a Frog. The documentary is an eco-comedy that mixes rapid-fire humor and hard-hitting facts to show the consequences of “overshoot” — too many people using up too little planet — and what it means for our future. With an upfront ‘Everyman’ approach, smart writing, world-class experts, and iconoclastic humor, How to Boil a Frog gives us the scoop on the imminent end of the world as we know it and 5 surprising ways you can save civilization – while laughing along the way. Because if were not having fun….then whats the point!

Check out some of these great shorts:

What is peak oil?

Peak oil – The bigger picture

What does energy returned on energy invested mean?

The Great Change

Albert Bates, author of The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook, brings you along on his personal journey.

A Wave With Words

Yesterday I met a man who had a wave with words. He was a cognitive semanticist. His name is Joe Brewer. He contributes to an ongoing discussion of climate policy from the viewpoint of cognitive science at rockridgenation.org.

Those who regularly surf NPR or PBS will probably have seen Joe Brewer’s mentor at Berkeley, George Latoff, most often in political campaign season. Latoff is that guy who talks about language, and how conservative spinmeisters have co-opted the discussion by framing the question. Some classic examples are the “death tax,” (for inheritance taxes), “War on Terror” (for illegal, immoral and endless military adventurism), or “intelligent design” (for creationism).

Read the rest of the article here

Short synopsis on language and framing

1) Switch the language back to actually describing what is going on. “Healthy Forests Initiative” should be called “No Tree Left Behind.”

2) “Liberal” means “a command of the basic facts and a sense of being an equal, not a superior.”

3)  environmentalists, and environmentalism, have been negatively framed. Those treehuggers would have us sacrifice comfort and well-being for the sake of some abstract aesthetic value — polar bears on an ice floe, or a tiny snail darter in a dammed stream.

 The NeoCon frame goes like this:

• Nature is a resource waiting to be exploited.
• Wealth is measured by money.
• Industry makes money, and thus creates wealth.
• Markets, which aid wealth creation, are naturally good.
• Any intrusion by government upon free markets is bad.
• Polluting is the natural consequence of industry, so pollution is an inevitable side-effect of wealth.
• Protection of the economy and protection of the environment are goals that inevitably conflict.
• If industry is forced to achieve environmental goals, then companies should be compensated for the cost.
• The better choice is for governments just to leave it to the markets.

Instead of that, we can reframe:

• Nature is the basis of our survival.
• Wealth is really about well-being; having good friends, or living in a flourishing community.
• A healthy economy requires a healthy environment.
• We all breathe the air. It is our right to have it, and in clean, healthy condition.
• Markets are tools for achieving societal goals and should serve those purposes.
• Markets should generate wealth in the broad sense — the health of the planet and future generations.
• Good government makes markets possible.
• Unregulated markets destroy the societal goals that created them.
• Regulation of industry and markets creates real wealth, and enduring wealth, in the broadest sense.

Our very own JonBC seems a little reluctant to blow his own horn, so I will do it for him. Jon has put together a most informative (and fun!) collection of peak oil resources on his How to Boil a Frog website. Check out a little Peak Oil history, where we are now and how to get to a sane and sustainable tomorrow.

Thanks Jon!

The US Department of Energy was interested enough in the peak oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February of 2005 by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled “The Hirsh Report: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” the report examines the likely consequences of global peak oil. It was authored principally by Robert L. Hirsch.

The report’s Executive Summary begins with the following paragraph:

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

The Hirsh Report is old news. Since its release, it has never attracted any media significant media attention. The media’s obsession with triviality, trash and violence distracts the majority of North America, allowing business-as-usual to continue unchecked. This absence of real journalism covering peak oil, whether intentional or simply careless has created an unnecessarily risky scenario where our options becoming increasingly limited and difficult over time. My hope is that the lack of coverage is carelessness, but my skepticism leads me to think the suppression of peak oil in the media is a very intentional act by the neo-cons to advance their plans.

Resources

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Hirsch
• The Hirsh Report
• Audio Interview with Robert Hirsh

I recently watched a lecture called Navigate the Falling Dollar by Catherine Austin Fitts. Catherine is an ex-investment banker turned financial reformist and community activist.

I’ve pondered how to invest my money to support local economies and have flirted with the idea of developing a community currency. She has advanced these ideas considerably. Her work is definitely worth looking into as we move forward.

References

• http://solari.com/

Matthew Simmons is probably my favourite author and lecturer on Peak Oil. He is the Goracle of the Peak Oil movement. He has dedicated his recent life to understanding the current reality of the energy industry and articulates his insight with incredible clarity. I would encourage any folks who are even remotely interested in peak oil to check out his book, his white papers & presentations and videos on Google Video and YouTube.

Here is his lecture from ASPO’s conference last year.

I’m looking forward to seeing footage from this year’s ASPO USA conference. It should be available on the net shortly.