OilSupplyLimitsAndTheContinuingFinancialCrisis

a b s t r a c t
Gail E. Tverberg
Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most severe economic crisis since the Depression. In this paper, logical arguments and direct evidence are presented suggesting that a reduction in oil supply can be expected to reduce the ability of economies to use debt for leverage. The expected impact of reduced oil supply combined with this reduced leverage is similar to the actual impact of the 2008e2009 recession in OECD countries.

If world oil supply should continue to remain generally flat, there appears to be a significant possibility that oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to decline, as emerging markets consume a greater share of the total oil that is available. If this should happen, based on these findings we can expect a continuing financial crisis similar to the 2008-2009 recession including significant debt defaults. The financial crisis may eventually worsen, to resemble a collapse situation as described by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990) or an adverse decline situation similar to adverse scenarios foreseen by Donella Meadows in Limits to Growth (1972).

Village Vancouver and Vancouver Peak Oil are pleased to welcome Richard Heinberg to Vancouver as part of the CoDev World Community Film Festival. Richard is one of the world’s most effective exponents of the urgent need to move away from fossil fuels and towards a post-growth economy.

Author of 10 books, including 2010′s The End of Growth, his wry, unflinching approach addresses challenges such as climate change, peak oil, economic instability, and food insecurity.

He exposes the tenuousness of our current way of life, while exploring governmental responses and promising grassroots models in community resilience, including the Transition Town Movement and the Occupy Movement. Heinberg offers a radical vision for a truly sustainable future.

More information about Richard Heinberg can be found on his website: richardheinberg.com.

JOIN US – FEB 10, 2012 5pm – 7pm
Langara College – Theater 5, Room 130
100 W 49th, Vancouver, BC
Admission to the festival opening lecture is by donation
Please register thru Langara 604.323.5322 (CRN 50966) or RSVP here.

The event is cosponsored by Village Vancouver and Vancouver Peak Oil. You don’t need to attend the film festival to attend Richard’s presentation. (Though we encourage you to go – it’s a great festival!)

Village Vancouver and Vancouver Peak Oil are pleased to welcome Nicole Foss, aka Stoneleigh, of The Automatic Earth back to talk about the future of our economy. She packed a lecture hall at Langara College last year with tales of impending economic collapse.

Now, after the Occupy Movement launched last fall, she has a new upbeat tone and theme, The Storm Surge of Decentralization. This is the 99%’s reaction to what we now know about the Ponzi schemes embedded in our modern financial systems, and changes have already begun.

Nicole Foss is a globally-sought issues leader on transition and an expert on the macro-economics of resilience.

JOIN US TO HEAR NICOLE
Thursday Feb. 2, 2012
7pm – 9pm
Langara College – Theater 5, Room 130
100 West 49th Avenue, Vancouver, BC
By donation at the door.
Please register thru Langara 604.323.5322 (CRN 50965) or
RSVP here.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012 1:27 AM
Mish Shedlock

Great summary of Peak Oil and Overpopulation in relation to each other. Vandy

“In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9% per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.” says Professor Stephen Hawking as reported by Edward Morgan in Looking at the New Demography.

Suffice to say the rate of population growth will not continue, and Morgan makes the case we are already in stage 5 of The Demographic Transition Model

Peak Oil Implications on Population Growth Read the complete Post.

By Rex Weyler
Jan. 9, 2012

But the B.S. is worse than this: The ISEEE report from U. of Calgary says that the price differential is only the difference in transportation costs between Alberta and the US Gulf Coast and Alberta and China, which is between $2 and $3 (not $8!) and even less for dilbit crude (diluted bitumen) for export by Enbridge. However, even if we accept the high $3 savings .. a generous interpretation .. Read the complete Post.

Jan. 5, 2012

At last some common ground between those for and against the tar sands pipelines from Alberta to BC! In “Proposed pipeline generates flood of support, opposition”, Kathryn Marshall of of EthicalOil (an oxymoron right up there with HealthyCancer) is quoted as saying: “Foreigner billionaires and their local lobbyists should butt out” of the pipeline decision.

I agree! And the first foreigner billionaires I’d like to butt out are Rich Kinder and Bill Morgan, the American ex-Enron billionaires who bought BC’s Terasen pipeline back in 2005 and want to ramp it up to 700,000 barrels of tar sands crude oil per day, shipped out on tankers right past Stanley Park. Maybe Kinder and Morgan could sell the pipeline back to Canadians, so we can make our own decisions about how many oil spills we want to risk to enrich the Chinese and American oil companies investing in the tar sands. Oh wait – maybe they could butt out too!

Jon Cooksey

http://howtoboilafrog.com

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

John Michael Greer

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/12/what-peak-oil-looks-like.html

There are times when the unraveling of a civilization stands out in sharp relief, but more often that process makes itself seen only in the sort of scattered facts and figures that take a sharp eye to notice and assemble into a meaningful picture. How often, I wonder, did the prefects of imperial Rome look up from the daily business of mustering legions and collecting tribute to notice the crumbling of the foundations on which their whole society rested?

Nowadays, certainly, that broader vision is hard to find. It’s symptomatic that in the last few weeks I’ve fielded a fair number of emails insisting that the peak oil theory—of course it’s not a theory at all; it’s a hard fact that the extraction of a finite oil supply in the ground will sooner or later reach a peak and begin to decline—has been rendered obsolete by the latest flurry of enthusiastic claims about shale oil and the like. Enthusiastic claims about the latest hot new oil prospect are hardly new, and indeed they’ve been central to cornucopian rhetoric since M. King Hubbert’s time. A decade ago, it was the Caspian Sea oilfields that were being invoked as supposedly conclusive evidence that a peak in global conventional petroleum production wouldn’t arrive in our lifetimes. Compare the grand claims made for the Caspian fields back then, and the trickle of production that actually resulted from those fields, and you get a useful reality check on the equally sweeping claims now being made for the Bakken shale, but that’s not a comparison many people want to make just now. Read the complete Post.

H2oil animated sequences from Dale Hayward on Vimeo.