Investors are currently asking: So, how is it that as the U.S. debt increases, bankrupt corporations get bailed out for billions, U.S. credit rating falls, growth declines, unemployment increases, and yet the U.S. dollar rises steadily?

We’ve been asking our Investment friends this question, and In simplest
terms, this is the answer we’re getting:

“It’s all manipulated.”

“Normally” in this environment of shrinking global growth, recession-level
numbers, and US bankruptcies, the US dollar would be sliding, and gold,
silver and commodity prices could be expected to rise dramatically, as they
were in the spring.

Meanwhile, global oil production remains flat, U.S. strategic reserves
shrink as the U.S. dips into this stash of oil, the Saudi’s just announced a
flow reduction, and with even 3.5% global economic growth and China still
attempting 10% growth, oil prices should be rising.

None of this is happening. Why?

Again, when we ask experienced day traders we hear simply: “A U.S.
election.”

The high oil prices did cause some demand destruction, investors say, which
explains some price decline, but does not explain the recent drop from $145
to nearly $100 today. Keep in mind, a year ago, oil was $70/barrel, so
today’s price still represents a 40% increase over one year ago. But what
explains the recent, dramatic fall in oil prices and rise in the dollar?

Because that is precisely the plan of the inside players.

Here is what commodity investors, even conservative money-making types, say:
This all started in mid-July and it is all about the U.S. election. Oil is
down and the dollar appreciates because that is what the big players want.
The U.S. and their globalization partners unload oil and gold and buy dollar
assets. We are talking about funds that can move 10s and 100s of billions of
dollars at will. The Chinese have been convinced, or induced, to hold off on
dumping U.S. dollars, the U.S. oil reserves have been broken open, and every
possible means has been employed to keep the dollar high and oil low, at
least until after the November U.S. election. And on a global scale, these
manipulators (not “speculators” since they know exactly what is going to
happen) can do this with a few phone calls, and have likely been setting
this up for some time, allowing oil and gold to run up before they all
jumped out.

A high dollar and low oil is good for the incumbent Republican US regime and
their global friends, so we should not be surprised that this is what we now
have.

Of course, this is unstable, and cannot be propped up forever, but it
doesn’t need to be. It will change after the election. Investors we talk to
are all saying, “Everything will change after the election.”

Now, of course, the official TV spokespersons and neo-con think-tank dudes
won’t come out and say this. They’ll say “the market works.” A few
adventurous journalists might ask the question: “Is there manipulation in
the markets?” But the well-paid experts will answer, “No, the markets
respond to investor confidence. The US dollar is up because the US has
defeated inflation.” (That’s the positive spin for sliding into recession).

The falling gold prices are difficult to explain. In this environment –
crashing banks, economic slowdown, weak currencies — gold should be hot.
Supply is virtually non-existent in some markets. The Indian gold dealers
can’t get product at their busiest time of year, the annual wedding season,
but prices continue to fall. The average investor might be confused, but the
experienced types are not:

It’s manipulated. Witness the “paper gold” economic “instruments” that have
flooded the market recently, which claim to represent real gold, but
actually represent just another made-up currency, sold on the market like
all the other derivative paper. This paper-gold creates ghost “supply.”
Meanwhile, the insiders will continue to dump this paper-gold and oil
futures and buy U.S. dollar assets until after the U.S. election.

As they do this, of course, they make huge profits when they dump oil in
July at $140 and $130; dump gold in July at $950, and maybe a bit more at
$930, 900 and so forth. And then they buy up anaemic U.S. dollars that
miraculously rise 14% against the Euro in 2 months.

Serious traders point out that this all began in mid-July, when the average
mom & pop investors are off on holidays and no one is paying attention.
Suddenly, there is huge volume trading in gold, oil, and U.S. dollars.

Here’s the profit scenario:

If you’re an insider, and know the right timing, you take your $40-billion
or $400 billion fund and:
1. Sell oil at $140, sell gold at $950
2. buy US. dollar assets valued at 0.62 Euros

dum … de … dum … have a nice summer.

Then, after mom & pop return home and find out their gold and oil stocks
tanked; and then after everyone gets all caught up in the U.S. election; and
then after the election or even slightly before, you get the call from Billy
Bob in Houston, and you can sell your dollar assets, 15% appreciated. Then:

Buy back oil at $100, and buy back gold at $750

Okay, you just made 40% on your money over the summer, so for every $1
billion traded, you now have all your oil and gold back plus and additional
$400 million cash, to take out as commissions, pay some dividends, and buy
some more gold.

And you’ll make another big whack of cash as oil and gold go back up, so
maybe you’ll double your fund assets in a year. That’s a decent incentive.

The gold-bug types, even those with a lot of assets, tell us: We’re just
small guys. We have to wait for the big players to move, then we’ll move.
Gold will go back up, that is guaranteed, but only when the big boys are
ready. The little public investors have been pouring money back into gold
since the price is low, but the price keeps going lower. Why? The
manipulators aren’t ready yet. But watch.

Yeah, so, the market works, but it works best if you’re a billionaire in the
loop.

RSS Trackback URL JonBC | September 11, 2008 (2:01 pm)

Economics, Energy supply, Politics, Resources, Spin, Thoughts

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