Comments on: Blackouts only a matter of time http://vancouverpeakoil.org/2008/08/14/blackouts-only-a-matter-of-time/ VPOE is working with NGO’s, foundations, citizens' groups and the media to build awareness of the imminent peak oil crisis and its potential effects on the metro Vancouver area. They are currently in the planning stages of a Vancouver Peak Oil Task Force and a Vancouver Food Security conference to be held in Spring 2008. Tue, 06 Jan 2009 08:13:01 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: BC_EE http://vancouverpeakoil.org/2008/08/14/blackouts-only-a-matter-of-time/#comment-144 BC_EE Fri, 15 Aug 2008 23:20:25 +0000 http://vancouverpeakoil.org/2008/08/14/blackouts-only-a-matter-of-time/#comment-144 The watch phrase to note in this article, and often repeated in any bulk electricity issue is “And we especially need the transmission lines that will bring the power generated by these new resources to consumers.” Everyone thinks PHEV's or more electric transportation is a groovy idea until the required transmission lines need to be built. It takes a long time to plan and construct these lines, so we can't wait until the rolling blackouts to make up our minds. Matter of fact, at the next public hearings I'm going to start taking names from the vociferous opponents. I'm sure they would be more than cooperative to be the first to cut off their electrical service when we experience shortages. What is missing in the present day consciousness is a knowledge of history. We enjoy the luxury of rabid environmentalism and prurient NIMBYism only because 40 years ago people with vision overbuilt the electrical system for the next 30 years. That puts us 10 years behind - give or take. If we think the next 40 is going to be like the last, we are in for a dark and cold reality check. The electric grid does not ramp up and down like a dimmer switch on the wall. It can vary within limits, but then it collapses. There is a lot of time and energy put into trying to predict load conditions so generation and transmission can be scheduled accordingly. But here is some sobering numbers (regardless of the hokey BS the NDP and BC Hydro Labour interests spew without a clue): - BC does import 15% of it's energy. This is NET energy, and it doesn't matter how much BC Hydro (BCH) generates on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. If BCH holds back water to generate when they can sell high and buy low, it doesn't matter. It's not any different than the speedometer and odometer on your car. You can vary your speed up and down based on driving conditions, but a kilometer is a kilometer no matter what. - Part of the BC Hydro LTAP (Long Term Acquisition Plan) is to develop Site C (at this time I object because I know we can do many more things before that is absolutely necessary - Site C Ought To Be Plan C). Site C is planned for 0.9 GW, or 900 MW. Within the next 2 years, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) will be needing an additional 1.0 GW and growing. So, we'll be needing a couple of Gigs in the neighborhood; Oregon will be needing 1+ Gigs; and sure enough, California et al are going to be needing a few more Gigs. Where do you think we are going to purchase that electricity, and at what cost if all these utilities are vying for the same? You might as well fire up every single coal fired plant in Montana right now. Oh wait, that's right, GHG's and all that warming stuff... So while we fiddle around playing hackey sack, navel gazing, or holding hands around the camp fire singing Kum By Ya time has run out. Get ready for a zero-sum alternative energy and transportation future because if we need to use electricity for personal vehicles or mass transit we are going to have to take it from somewhere else. Should it be schools, a hospital or two, or how about your favorite grocery store? And, its because someone, or some small group object to a transmission line or inconveniencing a few theoretical fish. (How many rivers and creeks do kyakers need anyway? Is every stitch of land destined to be a recreational playground for no one that can afford the fuel or food to use it?) We've got to get past the tyranny of the minority. I think we've all turned into a bunch of metrosexual, PC mush. And if you think I sound like an ignorant throw-back, remember I'll be taking names for the first volunteers. The watch phrase to note in this article, and often repeated in any bulk electricity issue is “And we especially need the transmission lines that will bring the power generated by these new resources to consumers.”

Everyone thinks PHEV’s or more electric transportation is a groovy idea until the required transmission lines need to be built. It takes a long time to plan and construct these lines, so we can’t wait until the rolling blackouts to make up our minds. Matter of fact, at the next public hearings I’m going to start taking names from the vociferous opponents. I’m sure they would be more than cooperative to be the first to cut off their electrical service when we experience shortages.

What is missing in the present day consciousness is a knowledge of history. We enjoy the luxury of rabid environmentalism and prurient NIMBYism only because 40 years ago people with vision overbuilt the electrical system for the next 30 years. That puts us 10 years behind - give or take. If we think the next 40 is going to be like the last, we are in for a dark and cold reality check.

The electric grid does not ramp up and down like a dimmer switch on the wall. It can vary within limits, but then it collapses. There is a lot of time and energy put into trying to predict load conditions so generation and transmission can be scheduled accordingly. But here is some sobering numbers (regardless of the hokey BS the NDP and BC Hydro Labour interests spew without a clue):

- BC does import 15% of it’s energy. This is NET energy, and it doesn’t matter how much BC Hydro (BCH) generates on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. If BCH holds back water to generate when they can sell high and buy low, it doesn’t matter. It’s not any different than the speedometer and odometer on your car. You can vary your speed up and down based on driving conditions, but a kilometer is a kilometer no matter what.

- Part of the BC Hydro LTAP (Long Term Acquisition Plan) is to develop Site C (at this time I object because I know we can do many more things before that is absolutely necessary - Site C Ought To Be Plan C). Site C is planned for 0.9 GW, or 900 MW. Within the next 2 years, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) will be needing an additional 1.0 GW and growing. So, we’ll be needing a couple of Gigs in the neighborhood; Oregon will be needing 1+ Gigs; and sure enough, California et al are going to be needing a few more Gigs. Where do you think we are going to purchase that electricity, and at what cost if all these utilities are vying for the same?

You might as well fire up every single coal fired plant in Montana right now. Oh wait, that’s right, GHG’s and all that warming stuff…

So while we fiddle around playing hackey sack, navel gazing, or holding hands around the camp fire singing Kum By Ya time has run out. Get ready for a zero-sum alternative energy and transportation future because if we need to use electricity for personal vehicles or mass transit we are going to have to take it from somewhere else. Should it be schools, a hospital or two, or how about your favorite grocery store? And, its because someone, or some small group object to a transmission line or inconveniencing a few theoretical fish.

(How many rivers and creeks do kyakers need anyway? Is every stitch of land destined to be a recreational playground for no one that can afford the fuel or food to use it?)

We’ve got to get past the tyranny of the minority. I think we’ve all turned into a bunch of metrosexual, PC mush. And if you think I sound like an ignorant throw-back, remember I’ll be taking names for the first volunteers.

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